New Seat Details - Lanarkshire North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lanarkshire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
SNP	21,807	43.3%
LAB	17,155	34.0%
CON	9,864	19.6%
LIB	1,155	2.3%
UKIP	434	0.9%
SNP Majority	4,652	9.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Lanarkshire North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Lanarkshire North

Old seat: Airdrie and Shotts

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Airdrie and Shotts, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Airdrie and Shotts				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North Lanarkshire	Airdrie Central	11,881	Lanarkshire North	1,528	2,777	105	0	0	2,672	0	0	7,082
North Lanarkshire	Airdrie North	14,765	Lanarkshire North	2,017	2,898	138	0	0	3,646	0	0	8,699
North Lanarkshire	Airdrie South	14,420	Lanarkshire North; Lanarkshire North East	2,200	2,861	291	0	0	3,377	0	0	8,729
North Lanarkshire	Coatbridge North and Glenboig	514	Lanarkshire North West	72	128	5	0	0	109	0	0	314
North Lanarkshire	Fortissat	11,127	Lanarkshire North East	1,519	2,750	128	0	0	2,357	0	0	6,754
North Lanarkshire	Mossend and Holytown	3,498	Lanarkshire North East	424	915	37	0	0	654	0	0	2,030
North Lanarkshire	Motherwell North	3,312	Lanarkshire North East	431	864	50	0	0	594	0	0	1,939
North Lanarkshire	Murdostoun	4,131	Lanarkshire North East	622	902	48	0	0	883	0	0	2,455
	Total	63,648		8,813	14,095	802	0	0	14,292	0	0	38,002

The full details of these calculations are given on the Airdrie and Shotts seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North Lanarkshire	Bellshill	6,734	Lanarkshire North West	638	1,867	91	0	0	1,718	0	0	4,314
North Lanarkshire	Coatbridge North and Glenboig	13,500	Lanarkshire North West	1,379	3,528	150	0	0	3,565	0	0	8,622
North Lanarkshire	Coatbridge South	10,861	Lanarkshire North West	1,068	3,104	127	0	0	2,909	0	0	7,208
North Lanarkshire	Coatbridge West	11,306	Lanarkshire North West	1,026	3,641	128	0	0	2,562	0	0	7,357
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld North	820	Lanarkshire North	111	144	14	0	0	230	0	0	499
North Lanarkshire	Mossend and Holytown	448	Lanarkshire North East	44	141	6	0	0	121	0	0	312
North Lanarkshire	Strathkelvin	15,540	Lanarkshire North West	1,902	3,354	261	0	0	3,871	0	0	9,388
North Lanarkshire	Thorniewood	11,630	Lanarkshire North West	1,151	3,414	145	0	0	2,630	0	0	7,340
	Total	70,839		7,319	19,193	922	0	0	17,606	0	0	45,040

Old seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Dunbartonshire	Campsie and Kirkintilloch North	7,376	Dunbartonshire East	1,163	1,476	203	76	0	2,107	0	0	5,025
East Dunbartonshire	Kirkintilloch East and Twechar	9,181	Dunbartonshire East	1,064	2,609	192	95	0	2,415	0	0	6,375
East Dunbartonshire	Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South	297	Dunbartonshire East	19	16	4	1	0	25	0	0	65
North Lanarkshire	Abronhill, Kildrum and The Village	10,933	Lanarkshire North	1,135	2,225	238	106	0	3,910	0	0	7,614
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld North	13,099	Lanarkshire North	1,968	2,562	217	102	0	3,751	0	0	8,600
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld South	14,140	Lanarkshire North	1,602	3,338	265	143	0	4,645	0	0	9,993
North Lanarkshire	Kilsyth	9,332	Lanarkshire North	1,058	2,632	119	83	0	2,270	0	0	6,162
	Total	64,358		8,009	14,858	1,238	606	0	19,123	0	0	43,834

New seat: Lanarkshire North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Lanarkshire North
North Lanarkshire	Abronhill, Kildrum and The Village	11,561	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	1,135	2,225	238	106	0	3,910	0	0	7,614
North Lanarkshire	Airdrie Central	11,954	Airdrie and Shotts	1,528	2,777	105	0	0	2,672	0	0	7,082
North Lanarkshire	Airdrie North	14,684	Airdrie and Shotts	2,017	2,898	138	0	0	3,646	0	0	8,699
North Lanarkshire	Airdrie South	2,979	Airdrie and Shotts	445	579	59	0	0	683	0	0	1,766
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld North	789	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	111	144	14	0	0	230	0	0	499
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld North	13,057	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	1,968	2,562	217	102	0	3,751	0	0	8,600
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld South	15,173	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	1,602	3,338	265	143	0	4,645	0	0	9,993
North Lanarkshire	Kilsyth	9,357	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	1,058	2,632	119	83	0	2,270	0	0	6,162
	Total	79,554		9,864	17,155	1,155	434	0	21,807	0	0	50,415

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lanarkshire North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Stuart McDonald (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	79,554
Turnout:	63.4%

Lanarkshire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lanarkshire North: Overview

Introduction